EU corona

Carpe corona: will the EU seize this moment and lead?

Coronavirus has spread from the wet markets of Wuhan, China, to the world. Each day new measures to contain its spread are announced, each day the death toll rises. Life in the time of corona is strangely like pressing the pause button and the fast forward button at the same time. In one sense lock down and social isolation have created a feeling of timelessness. At the same time there is an incredible sense of urgency as governments, scientists and health experts rush to find measures to contain the pandemic.  ‘Emergencies fast-forward historical processes’ as Harari put it. The EU project is one of the most ambitious in modern history. Will the coronavirus help to fast forward the creation of a stronger, more integrated European Union? One with the confidence to lead when leadership is so sorely needed?    

As a pandemic, corona virus is a global phenomenon that requires a global response. Although nations have thus far responded individually, there is increasing pressure on leaders to unite and share expertise and resources in the face of an enemy that knows no borders. A microcosm of the global system, and the new epicenter of the corona outbreak, the EU has thus far been characterized by a lack of real leadership at supranational level. Member states have hunkered down with national governments coordinating their own individual responses to the virus. But there are signs that this is changing.

“Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures.” – Christine Lagarde

Last Friday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a €750 billion stimulus package. It was accompanied by a statement from ECB president, Christine Lagarde, that, ‘Extraordinary times require extraordinary action’.  Greek bonds will also be included in the bank’s asset purchases for the first time. Further, EU Commission president, Ursula von de Leyden stated that the EU is also willing to consider backing common debt issuance in the eurozone in the form of coronabonds. ‘If they help and if they are correctly structured, they will be used.” Von de Leyden said. Perhaps more importantly, two of the staunchest resistors to debt pooling in the eurozone, Germany and the Netherlands, agreed for the first time last week, to consider this option. 

Closer fiscal union has been a sticking point for a long time in the eurozone. The wealthy northern member states have been reluctant to take on the debt of the ‘less disciplined’ southern economies. However countries like Italy, Spain and Greece provide markets for much of the north’s goods and services. Not to mention cheap holidays, second homes, food and drink.  The financial crisis highlighted the north/south divide. A civil war, in financial terms, broke out between the two regions. The sacrificial lamb was Greece – small and guilty enough to be bullied but not big enough to require a serious overhaul of the eurozone debt mechanisms. Covid 19 is different. It cares little about who has balanced their books and who hasn’t. The pandemic is threatening all sectors of eurozone economies and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

How things have changed!

One of the most tangible and dramatic results of the financial crisis and the eurozone’s struggle to coordinate a response to it, was Brexit. It did not happen immediately but June, 2016, saw Britain vote to leave the European Union. The ensuing process has been long and arduous. Just a little over two weeks ago, I attended an event dedicated to discussion of a final Brexit deal. At the time, British Ambassador to the Netherlands, Peter Wilson, described himself as ‘chipper’, in the wake of the clarity brought by recent British elections. He reiterated the UK’s desire for a Canada-style deal, based on precedent. There was substantial discussion about Prime Minister, Boris Johnson’s ability to ‘sell’ the deal back home, given the no compromise attitude that brought him to power. How things have changed since!  

Boris Johnson, like his counter-parts across the globe, is now struggling to coordinate an effective response to corona virus. Britain will not be eligible for the above mentioned stimulus package nor indeed any further relief, yet to come. Corona is changing the landscape of Johnson’s premiership, shifting it away from nationalist concerns over sovereignty and escape from the long arm of the European Court of Justice. It now finds itself confronted by a pandemic that is putting the healthcare system and economy under pressure hitherto unimagined. Suddenly Brexit is revealed for what it really is: a somewhat misguided response to a yearning for Britain’s glorious past combined with a lack of strong leadership at EU level. 

Fortune favours the brave.

The Union which Britain voted to leave has struggled to provide the kind of comprehensive leadership so desperately needed by 27 different member states, all with different cultures and economies, particularly in times of crisis. The 2007/8 financial crisis was  its first real test.  The EU came out intact. But dithering, disagreement and division meant that recovery was arduous and the seeds of populist rancour were sown.

Covid 19  has unwittingly provided Europe with an opportunity to step forward with confidence and lead. Numerous commentators have already pointed out the gap in global leadership left by the US. A pandemic like corona provides good reasons for individual member states to look beyond their national borders to the greater opportunities that a united Europe would provide. Fortune, as they say, favours the brave. Europeans and their leaders would do well to find the courage now to lead Europe and the world into a post-corona future.   

Edouard Louis – speaking for Europe’s forgotten poor.

At age 26, French writer, Edouard Louis, is something of a literary sensation on a global scale. His autobiographical novel, The End of Eddy’, published when he was just 22, sold nearly half a million copies and has been translated into 20 languages. Through his writing, he has also become the voice of the many ‘invisible’ men and women whom politics and progress have left behind.

Edouard’s rags to riches story began in a small, working class town in Northern France. His father and grandfather left school at fifteen and went to work in a factory. His father would later lose his job at age 35 due to an accident at work that destroyed his back. Thereafter he struggled to support five children on the welfare payments that diminished each year. Edouard was the first in his family to attend university, the first to read books and the first to write them.

Why is Edouard Louis so popular?

In person, one is struck by the sincerity of this young man. In spite of a childhood in which reading and homosexuality were viewed with suspicion and disgust, Edouard Louis is open and hopeful. Perhaps it is his sincerity and sensitivity when talking of his past that draws people to him. He is immensely popular with a wide spectrum of readers. Why? He writes of poverty, violence and disillusionment. All three of his books: The End of Eddy (2014) , A History of Violence(2016) and Who killed my father (2018), focus on the author’s personal experiences. He explains that he has never believed in a narrator as such, he writes in the first person. ‘I’ve never wanted to write something that I didn’t experience with my own body’. The deep sincerity of his narratives affects the intensity with which so many readers respond to his writing.  

 ‘For my father, politics was living or dying.’ – Edouard Louis

Louis talks about his most recent book, Who killed my father. It takes the form of an intimate letter addressed to his father, who is lying on his deathbed at the age of 50. For most, the figure of his obese, racist and homophobic father makes an unlikely muse. Yet Louis’s writing shows empathy and, ultimately, he takes it upon himself to defend this man. His father, he argues, was destroyed by entrenched social structures perpetuated by those for whom politics is a mere ‘parlour game’.  But for many like his father, politics is literally “a question of life or death”. The young writer names and shames a string of French presidents. From Chirac to Macron, whose policies directly affected uneducated, working class men like his father.

‘The personal is always political’ – Edouard Louis

For Louis then, the personal is always political. The young author recounts the story of his first attempt at getting published. The big Paris publishing house to which he had sent his manuscript, rejected it. Their reason: poverty of the kind described in The End of Eddy hadn’t existed in France in more than a century. No one would believe the story.  Yet it was this same poverty that Louis had experienced growing up in Hallencourt in the 1990’s. A family of 7 surviving on 700 euros a month.

‘Politics is not the same for the bourgeoisie as for the working class’. A political decision seldom affects the bourgeoisie in the way that it affects a working class family. Conversely, he never recalls seeing people from the bourgeoisie celebrating in the same way as they did. He remembers day trips to the beach because welfare payments were raised from one month to the next. However he also recalls how his father’s stomach was gradually destroyed by the poor medicine he was forced to take when disability allowances were slashed by Chirac’s government.  

‘Masculinity is always an issue of silence’ – Edouard Louis

Who killed my father opens with a scene in which father and son stand opposite one another in an imagined arena. Although they are standing in close proximity to each other, they are unable to communicate. Edouard explains how he spent fifteen years in the same house as his father, sharing the same space, yet knew hardly anything about the man. ‘The only things I know about my father came from my mother and my aunt. Masculinity is always an issue of silence’ he says. ‘And silence is a type of violence too’. As a homosexual, Louis was ‘the shame of the family’ in his father’s eyes. ‘Shame was my birth certificate’ as he puts it. ‘I am the son of shame. As soon as I would talk, my father would lower his eyes. He was ashamed because it was not masculine enough for him’.

The violence of silence.

Louis uses this example to point again to the constructed nature of social norms. ‘Most of the time, rules and social norms fail to transform us’ he insists. The French writer is particularly concerned with what one might term, the violence of silence. These oppressive social and cultural norms create cultures of shame. “When you have violence, you have silence, and I want to undo this, to pulverise this silence’. Edouard Louis has become renowned for doing just this.

His second book, A History of Violence, focuses on Edouard’s own experience of rape and attempted murder. It is a powerful exploration of the relationship between violence and deeply entrenched sexual norms. Louis admits that his motivation for writing it, was to create a discussion around the way society deals with sexual violence. ‘The #MeToo movement emerged, and it was really beautiful, the way it allowed people to talk’. But he is also equally certain that violence can not be fixed with more violence. ‘In our society, people are in love with punishment’, he says. Louis attempted to get the rape charges against his aggressor dropped, but was told this was illegal.

‘Macron is the most violent president we have had in fifty years.’ – Edouard Louis

Edouard Louis describes Macron as ‘the most violent president we have had in fifty years’. His father’s support of Le Pen’s far right party may be understood, he explains, as a desire to be heard, to be represented in a political system that ignores men such as him.
He sees his father as both perpetrator and victim of the greater violence perpetuated on the poor and the ignorant in society. This includes the political left.  Louis’s grandfather was a union man, yet both his mother and father were Le Pen supporters. ‘In the absence of any attempt by the left to discuss his suffering, my father took hold of the false explanations offered by the far-right’.

Edouard Louis draws attention to the changing face of the political left: How it gradually came to focus less on the old fashioned proletariat and more on things such as ‘harmony in diversity’, ‘social dialogue and calming tensions’. As Louis puts it, ‘my father understood that this technocratic vocabulary was meant to shut up the workers’. The left stopped fighting for the working class ‘against the laws of the marketplace’. Instead, he says, they tried to manage their lives ‘from within those laws’. For Louis this is clearly a deeply personal issue. However there are others like neoconservative political economist, Francis Fukuyama, who have raised similar concerns. The changing support base of the political left and the affect this has had on ‘the old white working class’ as Fukuyama calls them, is given as the primary cause for the rise of populism in his most recent book, Identity.

Manifesto of the gilets jaunes (yellow vest movement)?

Some have read Louis’s most recent book as a manifesto of the same men and women who are part of the yellow vest movement in France. Edouard Louis has been an early supporter of the movement and has marched in Paris with fellow activists. He sees the movement as ‘objectively left-wing’. A fight against the inequality that plagued his own childhood and the lives of his parents and grandparents before him. He admits feeling shock when he first saw the, ‘tired bodies and tired hands, broken backs and exhausted faces of those who never appear in the public and media space’.

But Louis also admits feeling paralyzed with anger by ‘the extreme violence and class contempt that is battering down on this movement’. It is difficult to argue with the young writer’s first hand experience of deprivation. ‘You must really never have experienced poverty, if you think that graffiti on a historic monument is worse than the impossibility of being able to take care of yourself, of living, of feeding yourself or your family’. Edouard Louis is unequivocal in his support for the uprising of the poor and down-trodden. ‘Anyone who insulted a gilet jaune was insulting my father’.

‘I cannot afford to write fiction.’ – Edouard Louis

For Edouard Louis, writing is his best weapon. He admits that ‘the minute we start to write, we are part of the bourgeoisie’. But feels very strongly his responsibility to ‘fight for the powerless, for a language that gives a place to the most invisible people’. The young writer says he cannot ‘afford to write fiction’. Instead he draws on what he terms, ‘the huge political strength’ of autobiography. He insists on putting truth at the core of his literary projects. ‘My writing forces people to confront real life.’

Perhaps it is fitting, then, that Edouard Louis describes his writing as a ‘different kind of literature’. An attempt even to ‘write against literature’.  But most important, is his desire to get people talking, communicating with one another. Breaking the silence that, as Simon and Garfunkel once famously wrote, ‘like a cancer grows’. The young literary sensation mentions how he has received thousands of letters from people, all over the world, telling him about their lives. He smiles. ‘This is what I wanted, people to talk’.

Up next on Souwie on …







China social credit

The price of trust – will China’s social credit system deliver?

In a world where virtual reality and fake news are becoming the norm, demand for that highly prized commodity, trust, is rising. In China, the speed of change on a scale hitherto unknown together with a lack of political transparency, has created a large deficit of this vital ingredient. I spoke with researchers from the Leiden Asia Centre on the social credit system, due to be rolled out nationwide this year. 

What is the social credit system and how does it work?

The Chinese government provided the first clear definition of what the social credit system should look like in 2014. According to the system’s founding document, the scheme should “allow the trustworthy to roam everywhere under heaven while making it hard for the discredited to take a single step.” Since then, Dr. Rogier Creemers explains, the government has ‘opened it up to tender’. The result: ‘a huge variety of systems across the country driven by the general principles and spirit of social credit’.

Thus, in 2015 there were 11 pilot schemes but this rapidly grew to 32 and by 2017 there were 623 social credit systems on offer across the country. Thus Associate Professor, Liu Jun, of the University of Copenhagen, points out that currently there is no unified social credit system in China. Some are government led and some are corporate led systems involving companies like Tencent and Alibaba. Liu Jun goes on to draw parallels with Aadhaar in India, the world’s largest biometric database and Germany’s schufa system for credit rating.

However, the Chinese approach, although not yet fully operational, appears to be much more far reaching. PhD candidate, Adam Knight, has spent time in China researching the reality of the social credit system. He explains that the Chinese government has selected 28 model cities from across the country on which others will base their social credit systems.

One that stands out in particular is Rongcheng in Shandong province. It is a relatively small city by Chinese standards, 650 000 people, and represents, ‘a very distilled microcosm of the national system at large’. It is here that Adam Knight conducted his research into the nuts and bolts of the system on the ground. He explains that it is the Credit Management Department’s job to gather information, decide on punishments and rewards and catalog behaviours.

Minus 50 points for spreading rumours on WeChat.

Knight provides an example of the taxi industry. Each taxi driver in Rongcheng is given a social credit ranking. They are pooled in groups of ten with the ‘best’ or most honest taxi driver placed in charge. This person is responsible for reporting misbehaviour from other members of the group. The information is used to create a star rating for each driver which is displayed on the front of the taxi. Other examples include actions like 10 points for clearing snow off the pavement, minus 5 points for arguing with your neighbour or minus 50 points for spreading rumours on WeChat. Drunk driving will probably cause your score to plummet. But donating to a charity or volunteering in one of the city’s programmes will earn you social credit. If your score drops below a certain level you may be banned from receiving government subsidies or attending university.

How is this data being collected? Officials from the department of Credit Management insist that anything that influences your points needs to be backed with official documents. However, Knight explains that there are well over a thousand volunteers in the Rongcheng area whose job it is to ‘snoop on their neighbours’, pen and paper in hand. These social credit records are then passed up on a monthly or sometimes a yearly basis. Cash incentives further muddy the waters of the system and result in data of varying quality. In theory, a person should be given 10 days notification if their social credit score is going to change. But in reality this seldom happens, Knight explains. Inaccurate data undermines one’s ability to appeal against the system.  

Social credit system ‘is a tool designed to enhance trust in the market place’ – Dr. Creemers 

Chinese media tends to provide what Knight terms, ‘an event driven perspective’ on the introduction of the social credit system. It is presented as life-improving  and there is little focus on issues of surveillance or privacy. Chinese law scholar, Dr. Creemers, who argues that China is largely ‘misunderstood’ due to lack of genuine interest from the West, admits that there is ‘no notion of a generalised right of privacy in Chinese law’. Instead, rules on data protection are ‘deeply contextualised’.

Data is not therefore seen as the personal property  of citizens and is often collected without their permission. Creemers admits that he doesn’t see any form of GDPR coming to China soon. But describes the social credit system as ‘a tool designed to enhance trust in the market place’.  Until recently few Chinese citizens had a bank account. This makes assessing credit worthiness difficult, particularly in a country as large as China. A lot of government held information in China is still on paper. Thus the social credit system is also about digitizing these paper records.

‘China is in a very serious trust crisis’ – Zheng Yefu

But the issue of trust goes deeper than this. “China is in a very serious trust crisis,” said Zheng Yefu, a sociologist at Peking University and author of the book “On Trust.” Reasons for this are varied. Some cite the Cultural Revolution and other political changes that ended traditional societal structures designed to ensure trust. Others say that the demands of a market economy in a society that lacks a well-developed legal and regulatory system is to blame.

The government’s recent morality campaign – ‘Eight virtues and Eight Shames’ is evidence of growing concerns in this regard. But as some commentators point out, the government itself is far from transparent. The release of inaccurate government statistics for political purposes, a general lack of accountability and systemic corruption within the party ranks are hardly the ingredients of which trust is made.  

Willing to forego some privacy if it means less fraud and crime.

Ethnographic research by Xinyuan Wang of University College London carried out over a period of 16 months suggests that Chinese citizens view the situation quite differently. Focusing on Shanghai, Wang found that most were willing to forego some privacy if it meant less fraud and crime. Food and drug safety are particular areas of concern. However many also associate the West’s ‘mature credit system’ with high levels of trustworthiness. The rule of law and the trust and transparency that it fosters cannot be replaced by the Communist Party’s social credit system. Perhaps one day Chinese citizens will know this, from first-hand experience.  

Losing weight with AI – a quiet revolution?

Human intelligence, that much vaunted, but still imperfectly understood phenomenon is the starting point for artificial intelligence.  AI is the simulation of human intelligence in machines. What does intelligence in a machine look like?  Experts now speak of strong and weak AI. But all AI is dependent on data and, like other high quality raw materials, good data is not guaranteed. I spoke with Dr. Romani, who is using AI to provide a sustainable weight loss programme. He and others like him are both hopeful and cautious about the huge advantages and the many challenges associated with using AI to improve healthcare.

Modern machines have an advantage over humans in their ability to process vast amounts of data at high speed. AI harnesses this ability and in so doing, is able to perform what to many may seem like modern miracles. In healthcare for example, algorithms are now capable of detecting various diseases, in some cases more accurately than doctors. AI can now diagnose lung and breast cancer better than humans with an error rate of just 3%. It also has implications for medical trials involving new drugs or treatments.

Bias in AI is a problem.

With the help of AI, the trialing process can be done much more quickly and efficiently. This means that new drugs could reach the market in a matter of weeks or months as opposed to years or even decades. But AI is based on algorithms, complex mathematical instructions that are trained on large data sets. It is now becoming clear that both the creators of the algorithms and the data itself can be biased. Bobby Bahov, founder of AI Lab One at the Hague Tech, explains that ‘Data is everything when it comes to AI.’

Bearing in mind the innate human tendencies toward bias which in turn are transferred to the artificially intelligent machines they programme, it is worth considering that the more simple, ‘weak’ forms of AI may well be less susceptible to extreme forms of bias. These more simple, single-task orientated algorithms may be employed to streamline a myriad of small but vital tasks. For example, all the daily tasks necessary for the efficient running of a hospital. So too can they be used to assist with global health issues like weight.

Simple algorithms can be used to measure daily fluctuations in our weight.

The problem of weight gain is increasingly common. For decades health care professionals and the business sector have come up a with variety of solutions that promise success at losing those extra pounds. I spoke with GP and sports science expert, Dr. Renato Romani, who has been working for a number of years now on addressing this problem using AI. His initiative has developed a simple algorithm that allows people to measure their weight each day using a specially designed weight monitor or scale.

The weight monitor contains no numbers but instead shows the weight watcher a trend in either weight loss or weight gain. This trend is based on numerous readings each day taken by an app, which communicates with the scale. It takes into account the fact that your body weight fluctuates, in the order of kilograms, each day. By providing a more realistic picture of your weight range, Dr. Romani has found that patients are motivated to continue making small adjustments to eating and exercising patterns. Overall, they have found a 40% improvement in long term weight loss using this method.

‘Weight loss is a journey’ – Dr. Romani

As Dr. Romani points out, ‘weight loss is a journey’. After a 5% change in weight, the body takes time to adjust to this new state. Romani admits that further research, with a wider number of patients, is still needed to determine how long such an adaptation period is, on average. The scale also provides generic advice given the type of trends in your weight loss or gain that it notices. For example, ‘try eating more salads’ or ‘increase your water intake’.  However Dr. Romani is adamant that this device is designed to be used with a healthcare professional. He still believes firmly in the importance of human contact. He sees his invention providing dietitians, doctors or gyms with the necessary scientific information to support their patients/ clients to achieve ‘sustainable and efficient weight loss’.

In one of their first pilot schemes at the ASPR offices in Brazil, 55% of the employees of the company with whom they worked, needed to lose weight. The doctor tells me how many went from skepticism of the scale to a more positive approach when they saw it had no numbers on it. And then, to a growing awareness of weight as they discussed their progress with one another on coffee breaks etc. Finally, he received thanks from a near-by fitness center for sending 10 employees to their gym. He explained that neither he nor the company involved had done any such thing, rather, those involved had taken it upon themselves to sign up for fitness classes.

‘We are not talking about replacing doctors any time soon’ – Bobby Bahov

Speaking with a variety of medical practitioners at the Hague Tech last week, it became clear that many who are positive about AI see it as a tool that will free-up their time so that they can focus on more complex problems. ‘We are not talking about replacing doctors any time soon’ says Bobby Bahov. The focus is rather on speeding up simple tasks so that waiting time can be reduced.’ For example, 25% of people don’t have visible veins, this can cause difficulties when taking blood. AI can be trained to solve this problem and save  doctors and nurses time to spend on other tasks.

The financial aspect of all of this is also very real. As one of the participants pointed out, ‘waste is not profit’. In healthcare, particularly hospitals and public health, the best way we could improve the system would be to avoid waste.  Waste can be reduced with the help of AI to streamline the system rather than reinvent the wheel. Insurance companies in the Netherlands are interested in AI, particularly when it comes to health care. Indeed, much basic healthcare in the Netherlands, is now largely a question of protocol which general practitioners are trained to follow. Such a system lends itself to the introduction of AI.

AI: Less is more

A focus on simplicity and human connection characterizes such initiatives. This is what Romani and others in the health care industry believe will revolutionise health care in the foreseeable future. Although investors, developers and the media may focus on the more advanced, sometimes dystopian aspects of deep learning and strong AI, this is not the stuff of which reality is currently made. It is also clear, that a slower, less high level approach might well provide society with the time needed to consider the many complex ethical questions that AI raises and with which even human intelligence is still struggling!  

Iran

Iran: Is the worst yet to come?

Recent elections and the shock arrival of the coronavirus in Iran have brought the country once more into the spotlight. I spoke with Iranian scholars and experts at De Balie recently who were equally divided on what the future holds for this ancient and beleaguered Middle Eastern power.

In recent years, Iran has made headlines with international sanctions regarding its development of a nuclear capability. In November last year widespread protests fuelled by exponential hikes in fuel prices were followed by the assassination of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani by US forces in Iraq. A retaliatory attack by Iranian forces resulted in the downing of a passenger plane  in which over 100 Iranians were killed. More protests followed. It is estimated that  over 1500 Iranians have been killed by government clamp downs since November. With record low turnout at last week’s elections and a rising coronavirus death rate, Iran’s Islamic Republic is coming under increasing pressure.     

Described by many as ‘the least competitive election in years’ in Iran, over 7000 of  the 15 000 candidates who applied to run in the 2020 elections were disqualified by the Guardian Council. This is a 12-person board of experts in constitutional and Islamic law largely appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A survey of 140 000 people carried out earlier this month by Iranian state television indicated that 83% of participants would boycott the election. 

‘Iran is surrounded by evil disasters’ – Monsoureh Shojall

There is a deep sense of despair among Iranians. Long-time women’s rights activist, Monsoureh Shojall explains, ‘Iran is surrounded by evil disasters’. Certainly much has changed since the 2016 national elections. They promised hope of reform from within the Islamic government and a move toward a more open, prosperous economy. The 2015 Iranian nuclear deal had just been signed and the resulting lifting of sanctions paved the way for growth predictions of up to 6%. Voter turnout was reported to be 62%.

However the US has since pulled out of the nuclear deal (2018) and re-implemented a raft of sanctions against Iran. This, combined with high levels of corruption and mismanagement within the country, has resulted in soaring levels of unemployment and inflation. The IMF estimated a 9.5% contraction of Iran’s economy in 2019. Under these circumstances it is perhaps understandable that Shojall SAYS describes ‘negativity is a national trauma’ in Iran. However opinions on the country’s future are divided.

‘Iranian society is on a quest for democracy’ – Shervin Nekuee.

Some see the following months as the breaking point for Iran’s Islamic regime. It has struggled for over 40 years to maintain control. But for Iranian sociologist and writer, Shervin Nekuee, ‘Iranian society is on a quest for democracy’. He describes the current time as ‘a dark moment on an inspiring quest’. Iranian academic and research fellow, Damon Golriz, is even more hopeful of change. He argues that since December 2017 the country has ‘changed radically’. An era of dichotomy or bi-polar division has begun he explains, which involves 80% of Iranians under 40 demanding a complete change. ‘They want something totally new, a different life.’

Shervin Nekuee takes a long-term historical perspective in order to explain the current situation. His narrative begins in 1953, the year of the coup d’état in which the CIA allegedly took a hand via Operation Ajax. In the climate of the Cold War, the rise of the Communist Party in Iran was viewed with suspicion by the United States.  Fast forward to 1977 when Jimmy Carter describes Iran as ‘America’s island of stability’ in the Middle East. Only to find that two years later, the Islamic Revolution successfully dispelled any such notions. The American hostage crisis in the same year,  lasting for an incredible  444 days, compounds the growing tensions between the US and Iran. So too, does the Iran / Iraq war in which America supports Saddam Hussein. Trump’s recent withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and the assassination of a member of the Iranian government is further evidence of failing Iran US relations. 

‘Trump is more popular in Iran than in Europe’ – Damon Golriz

But there are others who interpret events differently. Damon Golriz argues that the removal of Soleimani has ‘opened the doors for negotiation between Iran and the US as well as Iran and Saudi Arabia’. Generally acknowledged as the second most powerful man in Iran after the Ayatollah Khamenei and labelled a terrorist by the US, Golriz argues that Soleimani stood in the way of any serious structural reforms in Iran. Research Fellow in International Peace, Justice and Security group in the Hague, Golriz told me he has twitter accounts in Persian and in English. He sees that in Iran, Trump is far more popular than in Europe. For the simple reason that ‘they understand politics while  the Europeans focus on his morality’. 

The future of course is difficult to foresee. As our Iranian host, Bahram Sadeghi, tells us with typical irony, ‘My father always said, “Bahram, the worst is yet to come”’. In the case of Iran, this may, sadly be true. But Damon Golriz is positive about the strong and growing desire for change among the younger generation in Iran. He is also more positive about the shift in power dynamics that have occurred in the Middle East recently. Even skeptics like University of Amsterdam Senior lecturer, Paul Aarts, agree that with a Republican government likely to remain in place in the US,  the Islamic regime may be forced to agree to a deal that even moderates will accept. This is simply because Trump has shown he is willing to put his money where his mouth is, for better and for worse. 

fake news

Lies, damn lies and fake news.

As the coronavirus spreads, so information and disinformation about its causes, casualties and prognosis have spread with it. One epidemiologist has suggested fake news about the virus is just as contagious as the virus itself. Although false or misinformation has been with us for centuries, it was only in the last decade that the term ‘fake news’ was coined.  I recently heard from journalist and founding editor of BuzzFeed Canada, Craig Silverman, who was one of the first to use and study the phenomenon. On a visit to Amsterdam, he discussed the role of disinformation in this age of social media and how it affects our daily lives.  

Do we live in a post-truth world? This question is frequently raised. Yet, as writer, Steven Poole points out, there never has been ‘a golden age of transparency’. Fake news and scientific misinformation were serious problems for  Renaissance thinkers, along with our tendency toward confirmation bias. This may well be true but Craig Silverman’s account of the growth of the phenomenon on social media, highlight the importance of context.  Silverman begins his story in the small Macedonian town of Veles in 2014. With the closure of a factory, the town’s largest employer, many local residents found themselves out of work. However, a group of  young, tech savvy locals began to cash in on the money that could be made from creating fake websites that ran fake news. In this case, they created over a hundred pro-Trump websites in the run-up to the 2016 US elections.

A digital gold rush.

Designed to engage Trump supporters and ultimately generate revenue via Facebook and Google AdSense, Silverman describes the phenomenon as ‘a digital gold rush’.  His 2016 article ‘How teens in the Balkans are duping Trump supporters with fake news’, was one of the first instances in which the term, ‘fake news’ was used. His investigation of the phenomenon highlighted the economic incentives associated with the production of fake news. Consumers in the US are worth about four times as much as a user outside the country according to Facebook’s earnings reports. The young Macedonians who ran these sites told Silverman that they didn’t care about Trump but were simply interested in click rates which ultimately lead to cash.

This was an early example of what Silverman terms ‘the business model around manipulation’. Similar trends continue today. For example; the global trade in Amazon 4 and 5 star reviews. Or the renting out of one’s Facebook account for around 15$ a month to run advertisements. In 2014 he founded Emergent.Info, a web-based tool that tracks social share patterns over time and is thus able to verify or debunk rumors and conspiracies online. Silverman tells us that he found a certain type of website never seen before. They initially looked normal but were in fact 100% false.

He shows us the example of one such website, called National Report. Sites such as these not only have fake content but also fake journalists, fake reader comments and even false ‘corrections’ from those apparently involved in the incidents reported. ‘These sites were getting hundreds of thousands of hits’ he tells us. He mentions another example from Canada where two youths created a website that consistently earned thousands of dollars a month by making up fake stories about Canadian Prime minister, Justin Trudeau.

‘Authoritarian regimes have weaponized fake news’ – Craig Silverman

Silverman goes on to explain how US President, Donald Trump, then ‘took ownership of the term’, using it to deflect criticism and questions from the press. He also mentions the renting out of individual’s accounts in the Ukraine by Putin’s Russian government, in order to manipulate the Ukrainian elections. Indeed the journalist suggests that fake news has been ‘weaponised’ by authoritarian regimes who have used it not only to criminalize dissent but also to protect and promote their own power base.

A recent article in the Conversation explores how the Chinese authorities are using social media to ‘manage  information’ about the coronavirus and its spread. The ’50-cent army’ and volunteer ‘truth ambassadors’ have been mobilised in their rumour-busting efforts. Tencent has taken responsibility for providing ‘transparent’ communication on the virus. The government has told people to only post and forward information from official channels and warned of severe consequences for anyone found guilty of disseminating “rumours”. These include permanently blocking WeChat groups, blocking social media accounts, and possible jail terms.

Error has always been a part of journalism, indeed of all things human. But, as Silverman explains, traditionally, the press has remedied this by acknowledging errors made. Such an approach ensured accuracy and generated that all important ingredient: trust. The Canadian journalist spent ten years running a website called, Regret the Error which focused on mistakes made by journalists. During this time he noticed the seismic shift that occurred with the advent of social media. ’This was a ten year journey that really began to change when social media became such a big force’, he explains. Errors could no longer be corrected by news producers nor could the veracity of facts be checked before they were made available for public consumption. ‘All sorts of erroneous stuff is already out there and getting lots of attention on social media’. How then does one sort the real from the fake, the trusted from the untrusted?

What does healthy skepticism look like?

Clearly the virtual world has created opportunities hitherto unknown for both good and ill. The incredible reach of social media means that almost everyone can now participate.  The question is how best to manage this massive shift without sacrificing freedom or trust. Silverman argues that transparency and open discussion are essential. The Canadian journalist invites everyone to think about what ‘healthy skepticism looks like’.  He predicts a rise in what he terms ‘borderline misinformation’ in the future. But he still believes the internet can be a force for good in spite of its growing complexity. ‘Don’t be afraid of complexity!’ he urges. In a world of information disorder we don’t, it seems, have much choice.

humanism marriage

Marriage: getting a much needed modern make-over?

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Marriage, as an institution, is over 4000 years old estimates suggest. It predates the great monotheistic religions like Christianity. Indeed marriage had little to do with either love or religion for hundreds of years. In an increasingly secular world, the institution of marriage as defined by the church is under pressure. The desire to mark and celebrate a life changing event like marriage is stronger than ever, not so its religious sanctification. I spoke recently with humanist celebrant, Zena Birch, who  marries couples in non-religious ceremonies that celebrate the union of two individuals rather than the institution of marriage.

In Europe, the role of the Roman Catholic Church in marriage was widely established by the 8th century. It remains that way even today. But people like Zena Birch are changing this. ‘I’m not so interested in the institution of marriage per se, but in the coming together of two people who have chosen to unite,’ she tells me. Originally trained in theatre, Zena is an excellent speaker. However the job involves much more than this. It all  began quite unintentionally when Zena was asked by two Canadian friends, living in LA, to speak at their union. ‘ I wrote a ceremony based on what I had learnt about these two wonderful people’ she explains. They were very happy with the result. Zena began investigating the ways in which people could marry in the UK that did not include the church. She even looked into becoming a registrar but found that there were many things that could not be done in the name of secularism. For example, no music with any religious connotations, no references to a spiritual other of any kind. b

“It was the most extraordinary thing I had ever been part of’ – Zena Birch

For a few months Zena gave up on the whole idea but then attended a funeral by a humanist minister. ‘It was the most extraordinary thing I had ever been part of’, she enthuses. A rigorous selection procedure followed. Four months of training and a support network provided by Humanists UK and Zena was ready to preside over her first wedding ceremony as a humanist celebrant. She originally focusing only weddings but now does funerals and naming ceremonies too. ‘I decided to cut my cloth doing weddings because these are joyous occasions for which one has plenty of time to prepare’ she explains. Funerals are more difficult for a variety of reasons and naming ceremonies are becoming more popular but still fall frequently within the church’s domain. Ten years on and Zena has  married gay and straight couples all over the world from the US to Spain and Sweden. Indeed she recently conducted the first gay marriage ceremony on the Amalfi Coast in Italy, for a Canadian couple.  

Zena explains to me that she is deeply interested in the role of ritual in modern life. Clearly ritual has been part of human existence since the earliest times. Yet institutions like the Roman Catholic Church hijacked ritual and it is only now finding new avenues of expression. As Chair of the Humanist UK Ceremonies Board, Zena Birch is part of the campaign to make humanist ceremonies legal. She believes that ritual should be based first and foremost on inclusivity while religion is often about exclusivity. ‘Ceremony exists to elevate the ordinary’ she explains. While the church might achieve such an elevation through religious scripture and belief, a humanist approach focuses on the individuals involved. Specifically, the meaning that such an event has in their own lives including the important role played by family and friends.

Couples get ‘homework’.

To this end, Zena will typically spend between 9 months and a year preparing a wedding ceremony. ‘I really enjoy the process of my job’. This includes spending time with both bride and groom to get to know them and discuss what is important to them. Zena will also contact family and friends to gain further insights into the two individuals she will unite. She  explains that her role in the whole process is quite unique because she is ‘ someone who the couple both meet neutrally for the first time’.  She has also begun to include discussions about expectations regarding marriage, including children and unashamedly gives what she terms ‘homework’ to her couples. Although Zena describes it as fun and rewarding, she admits that there have been occasions when one of the partners has been reluctant to do it. Later however, they always thank me, she insists.

Over the years, Zena has also found that couples whom she married return to her for the naming ceremony of their first child. She finds this particularly rewarding. It also highlights the fact that for many, a familiar figure, someone who knows you and the family, is welcomed for these special and difficult times. This role has traditionally been filled by the local parish priest. But as fewer and fewer people attend church, there is a gap that needs to be filled.

‘I have the most amazing job in the world’ – Zena Birch

Zena tells me that since she started a decade ago, she has noticed a definite shift toward non-religious ceremonies. Reasons may include an increase in mixed marriages (couples with different religious backgrounds), gay marriages and atheists or agnostics who would like to mark the occasion without involving religious doctrine. The humanist celebrant is unequivocal when she tells me ‘ I have the most amazing job in the world’. Zena’s is a deeply human endeavour. One that speaks to our oldest and strongest needs to love, cherish and share our joy and pain with those to whom we are closest, irrespective of religion, race or sexual orientation.  

Humanomics

Deirdre McCloskey on why liberalism works.

Deirdre McCloskey is a tonic, in the old-fashioned sense of the word. Her clarity of thought, unstinting enthusiasm and willingness to cut directly to the chase restores one’s faith in economists and academia more generally. I recently met and spoke with the Distinguished Professor of Economics, History, English, and Communication at the University of Illinois, Chicago (UIC) in Amsterdam. Here to promote her latest book, ‘Why Liberalism Works’, she tells me that the Netherlands holds a special place in her heart. It was here that she spent the first year of her life as a woman. Over seventy now, McCloskey continues to write, travel and speak to audiences around the world about her special brand of ‘radical, bleeding heart liberalism’. 

McCloskey explains that she came to liberalism ‘from the left’. The eldest child of Robert McCloskey, a law professor at Harvard University and poet, Helen Stueland, Deirdre earned her undergraduate and graduate degrees in Economics at Harvard University. A student in the turbulent years of the 1960’s, she describes her young self as ‘an anarchist, then a Joan Baez socialist, then a Keynesian and then a kind of economic engineer.’

‘I’ve never been conservative’ – McCloskey

Born in Michigan, Deirdre McCloskey has spent much of her working life at the University of Chicago although her fields of study have changed over the years. She describes herself unhesitatingly as ‘a midwestern woman’, presumably aware of the connotations of mid-western conservatism that such a description might evoke. The Chicago School of Economics is considered by many to be at the heart of neoliberalism as is one of its longest associates,  Milton Friedman. McCloskey is a big fan of Friedman, Robert Fogel and the great Adam Smith himself. Yet she tells us clearly, ‘I’ve never been conservative’.

McCloskey is equally critical of both the left and the right in politics. “The Democrats say, “Add more regulatory domineering of prescription drugs, instead of permitting adult Americans to buy them freely abroad.” The Republicans say,“ Add more police domineering of northeast Baltimore, instead of permitting adult Baltimoreans to find employment at a wage that businesses are willing to pay.”” She is equally scathing of both, because neither respect what for her, is the fundamental tenet of true liberalism –  the right to choose for yourself.

‘The real way to help the poor is to let them be adults’ – McCloskey.  

‘Liberalism is the theory that there should be no masters. No husbands over wives, no masters over slaves, no politicians over citizens. It’s egalitarian.’ She describes it as ‘the shocking idea that everyone is equal ,equal in permission, equal in dignity but not in income and outcome.’ For those of a socialist persuasion, the latter may be difficult to stomach. But Deirdre McCloskey is unequivocal. Liberalism is best for poor people, because economic growth is best for the poor. ’The real way to help the poor is to let them be adults.’ Let people do what they want, she insists, ‘because that is the dignity of  adulthood.’

McCloskey’s own life choices resonate with such a perspective. At age 52, she chose to cross over from being Donald to Deirdre. “… As May West might put it, ‘I was Snow White . . . but I drifted!’ she remarks with typically dry humour. She explains that from age 11, she had been a secret cross-dresser, a few times a week. ‘Otherwise I was normal, just a guy.’ Her wife had known about the cross-dressing since the first year of their marriage, when they were 22. ‘No big deal, we decided. Lots of men have this or that sexual peculiarity. Relax, we said.’

‘My gender crossing was motivated by identity, not by a balance sheet of utility.’ – McCloskey

By 1994, the Professor of Economics and History at the University of Iowa had been married three decades, had two grown children, and thought, ‘I might cross-dress a little more’. But this time was different, ‘I visited womanhood and stayed’, she says simply. Costs and benefits wasn’t the point. ‘’The point was who I am.’ Some things simply cannot be quantified. Or, as McCloskey puts it,  ‘My gender crossing was motivated by identity, not by a balance sheet of utility.’

But if we are talking cost and benefits, Deirdre’s transition has come at a high cost, in both human and monetary terms. Her son has not spoken to her since she crossed and, as a result, she has yet to meet her two grandchildren. She tells me with characteristic lack of self-pity, that at age 72, she’s not sure she ever will. Her sister, a Harvard trained psychiatrist, tried 4 times to stop Deirdre going through with the gender change by getting her admitted to a mental institution. Although Deirdre tells me they are now on speaking terms again, her sister has never offered to pay back the thousands of dollars she cost her sister in additional legal and medical bills. Not to mention the sheer trauma of having to fight a close family member, before going through a harrowing series of complex medical procedures. McCloskey writes at length about her numerous encounters with psychiatrists, noting with typical irony; ‘Deirdre was surprised that psychiatrists allowed themselves to be cast as gender police’.

‘We make ourselves, which is our freedom as human beings.’ – McCloskey

Whatever you choose to be, it is your right. There is a clear synchronicity here between McCloskey’s politics and economics and her personal life. The issue of identity is central to the individual. If, as Deirdre McCloskey believes, we make ourselves, then identity is constructed. She admits to some biological tendencies, usually evident from childhood, but as adults, we are free to construct our own identity, piece by piece. ‘We make ourselves, which is our freedom as human beings.’ The ability to do this is what gives us dignity. It’s also difficult. ‘Look being free is scary. But a free society is one in which you can take this job and shove it.’ The alternative is what McCloskey terms ‘ a kind of voluntary slave’, someone tempted by subsidies and ready to stay in their safe, comfortable spot, forever.

To this end then, Professor McCloskey is unrelenting in her belief in the power of markets to optimize equality, because they are a naturally occurring human phenomenon and do not come from the government. Describing herself as ‘a radical’ she advocates for a ‘bleeding heart’ or ‘feminist liberalism’, rather than the kind of social Darwinism that prioritizes  maximization of profit. She believes in a constitutional democracy and the power of the individual over the general will. Deirdre McCloskey refuses to buy into what she terms ‘the economic sky is falling’ argument. ‘There’s something deeply screwy about this idea that exploitation is what made us rich. That’s the argument of the left.’

‘Liberalism is the theory that you should let people be adults’ – McCloskey

Socialism she argues is based on the idea that the economy of a country is like that of a family. This is the attractiveness of socialism – the idea that the government is like a benevolent parent who will shoulder much of the responsibility. Families are inherently socialist in nature, she explains, as they should be. But equating the family with an economy of 300 million people is a mistake. ‘Liberalism is the theory that you should let people be adults’. 

She admits however, that such a position is difficult to maintain when dealing with innocent victims such as the children of drug addicts and the destitute. For this reason McCloskey is in favour of helping the poor, she tells me, even a modest form of Universal Basic Income for those members of society who need it. The professor of Economics also speaks at some length about ‘humanomics’ – a more serious and sensible way of doing economic science, she explains. ‘Quantitatively serious, philosophically serious, historically serious, ethically serious. Indeed she suggests that ethics is in some ways the ‘foundational discipline’ of  humanomics.  

A question of human nature

The issue it seems is not purely a question of economics. Rather it is a matter of how one views human nature. McCloskey makes a case for the manner in which behavioural economics has resulted in the highlighting of irrational behaviour in economic life. Many, like fellow Nobel prize winner (2017) Richard Thaler and Stiglitz himself, regard this as evidence of the need for a strong government – representative of society as a whole, to keep erring individuals on the straight and narrow. ‘The end is near, so take me, the man on the white horse, and let me run your life for you’, McCloskey puts it with characteristic directness. McCloskey’s plea for the prioritization of individual human dignity above all else is challenging and places more responsibility on the individual. Ultimately it celebrates the power of the individual over that of society. Surely there are few better ambassadors for such a celebration, than Deirdre Nansen McCloskey.  

radicalization

Rising radicalization in Europe – how best to address the crime-terror nexus?

It is estimated that 50% to 80% of Europeans involved with ISIS have a criminal record. So say recent studies by the EU Institute for Security Studies and the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence. Furthermore, up to 40% of terrorist plots in Europe are partly financed through petty crimes. In fact, criminals are specifically targeted by ISIS recruiters because of their skill sets. In return, ISIS offers what researchers call, ‘redemptive narratives’. These preach forgiveness and belonging to those with criminal pasts, while  legitimizing future crimes. I recently spoke with Amanda Paul, co-author of a large study on the link between criminality and jihadist terrorism in Europe.

The link between crime and terrorism is not new. Reports by organisations like the RAND Corporation showed that ISIS generated over 6 billion dollars at the height of its territorial control in 2015. Oil revenues clearly played an important part but a range of other criminal activities such as theft and antiquities smuggling were also used to generate income. Bottom-up funding through petty crime is also key. To this end, recruitment of individuals with a criminal background is increasingly common. Social media has proved highly powerful in this regard. Prisons and recently released prisoners as well as returning foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) are also fertile sources. Vulnerable individuals such as these are more easily recruited by ISIS and similar.  

“Sometimes people with the worst pasts create the best futures”– Facebook posting from UK extremist group.

Amanda Paul, of the European Policy Center (EPC) in Brussels, recently to spoke here in the Hague about the results of a 9 month research project completed in cooperation with the Counter Extremism Project. Independent research on ten European countries including Albania, Belgium, France, Germany, Republic of Ireland, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom was conducted from October 2018 until the summer of 2019. The results provide a complex picture of radicalization within Europe and its links to the crime-terror nexus. Nevertheless, certain trends stand out. The growing overlap between crime and terrorism in Europe is particularly prominent in those with immigrant backgrounds, specifically alienated youth. Young males, from socially excluded areas with low living standards and/or suffering from mental illness or substance abuse, often with friends or family who are already radicalized, are particularly vulnerable.

The study also highlights the potential security threat posed by returning foreign terrorist fights both in and outside of prison. Many of the hundreds of known returning FTFs have not been prosecuted in European countries due to lack of evidence for specific offenses. This means that many simply return to deprived communities where narratives of heroism in war are often unopposed. The study talks of some becoming ‘insurgent rock stars’ with the potential to radicalise others and create new jihadist networks. For those who do go to prison, sentences are often no more than 3 years, leaving little time for rehabilitation. Furthermore, in countries such as France, Belgium, Sweden and the UK, where prisons are overcrowded,  understaffed and have inadequate programmes for rehabilitation, the potential for radicalization is greatly increased. Some European countries, especially Sweden and the Netherlands, support the idea of an international tribunal to try FTFs . They are currently looking for support from other EU member states.

No quick fixes.

So far, there are few examples of released terrorist offenders successfully disengaging from extremist ideology and reintegrating in into society. The findings of the study highlight two areas of focus: the prison system and systems of integration in main stream European society. An ‘All of society’ approach to prevention is recommended by Paul and Acheson. Educational institutions, the role of community police and programmes aimed at building resilience in marginalised communities are all key. The provision of positive role models for youth, careful monitoring of mosques and religious schools as well as cracking down on petty crime are also recommended.

‘Discussing radicalization should not be taboo’ – Amanda Paul.

For those who are already radicalized, prison systems and information sharing relating to prison services are highlighted for greater attention. Research across all ten countries shows that there are significant gaps in the transfer of information and intelligence on extremist prisoners between European countries, from their time in custody to their release. Discussing radicalization should not be considered a taboo.

To this end, they recommend the creation of an Extremist Prisoner Information Center (EPIC) to facilitate information sharing between EU prison information systems. This in turn would feed into enhanced powers for the European Border and Coastguard agency. Which would facilitate the provision of a high quality, security focused common response to FTFs. The creation of a network of high-security prisons across Europe with effective rehabilitation centers would complete this multi-agency approach. Such a long-term, holistic approach underpinned by more open, honest exchange of information and discussion is no small ask. But more integrated, resilient societies across Europe are surely worth the investment.