War in Ukraine: how many more wake-up calls do we need?

These are the words of NATO’s new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, at a recent Carnegie Europe event in Brussels.  Rutte aimed his no-nonsense speech at the citizens of Europe. The reason: these are the people who need to understand in no uncertain terms, what lies ahead for a continent that is still in denial at deepening Russian aggression.

As the war in Ukraine soon enters its fourth year and President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take up residence in the Oval Office once more, a flurry of high-level talks and events in Brussels, Washington and London highlight growing levels of unease amongst politicians, diplomats and policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic.  

“The penny should have dropped in Europe that there is a war on in Europe and we need to go to a war-footing”, says Sir Ben Wallace, the UK’s former Secretary of Defence, at a recent Chatham House event in London. Admitting that “we could all have done more” to help Ukraine, Sir Wallace echoed Rutte’s desire for candid discussions with citizens about what might be in store. “Politicians have to stop telling people that there is something for nothing. We have to be grown-up and honest in our conversations.”

“Freedom does not come for free” – Mark Rutte

Or, as Rutte puts it even more directly, “Freedom does not come for free”. Calling on “big nations”, in Europe, to lead, Head of Defence Policy at NATO, Christian-Marc Lifländer says, “I kid you not, this will require significant increases in spending, beyond 2%”. He warns that we have only two to three years with which to work. Unless progress is made, “we’re in trouble”. He calls too for the education of voters so that “they understand what the cost of failure looks like.” Significantly, Rutte would not be drawn on committing to a percentage for NATO member contributions. However, Lifländer mentioned 4%, assuming the money was “spent well”, meaning in strategic cooperation with other member states and allies.

The need for action on the part of Europe, was strongly echoed by policymakers across the Atlantic in a recent CSIS event in Washington. “I think many Europeans don’t realise how soon they could be faced with putting boots on the ground in Ukraine” said Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow for the Russia & Eurasia Programme at Carnegie Europe. “The Europeans are grossly under-estimating the kind of offerings that they will need to make”.  For Kofman, the big question is what the West can offer Ukraine in terms of security guarantees before serious negotiations with Russia begin.

War fuels Putin’s regime

Both Kofman and Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow for Russia & Eurasia with CSIS, agree that Russia might be willing to talk but real peace is a long way off. Snegovaya points out that Russia has already lost well over half a million troops in its war on Ukraine. The war has now become central to regime stability as the military drives the Russian economy and passive support from Russian society continues. There is also support for peace talks in Russia, explains Snegovaya, but this involves the expectation that hostilities would end with current territorial gains left as is. With this in mind, she suspects that “Putin, like Stalin, might have to die before a genuine cessation of hostilities can be expected”. 

Mobilisation: manpower matters  

Russia continues to retain the initiative over much of the front line. What’s more, its rate of gain on the front has been increasing every month since August. The main advantage: Russian airpower and manpower. Despite heavy losses, Russia has successfully sustained recruitment of troops. A recent survey in Russia calculated that if the salary of a soldier reaches around $4000 per month, there are still approximately a million soldiers willing and able to fight for Russia, explains Snegovaya.

In contrast, troop mobilisation continues to be a problem for Ukraine and has been dropping steadily since summer. Yet Kofman points out that Ukraine “is not out of men by any means”. It does however, need to address the issues of basic training and demobilisation. Training, according to Sir Wallace, is “the easiest ask that Ukraine can make of the West.” Between NATO members, he claims, a million troops can be trained. For Kofman, the situation is clear, if Ukraine does not stabilise its manpower problem, it will not stabilise the frontline.

 This, according to Kofman, is the crux of it. If Ukraine can hold the frontline for the next few months, the cost of the war will increase significantly for Russia and Putin’s negotiating position will weaken. Borrowing costs for Russia will rise significantly over the coming year with strong impact on an already fragile economy. Overall, Kofman describes the situation as “fragile” and says there is much room for “course correction” both on the part of Ukraine and the US . The bottom line as Rutte so clearly puts it; “the frontline is moving westwards not eastwards”.

Cheaper to defeat Russia in Ukraine – Domanska

In terms of Europe’s reaction to the crisis, Lifländer describes European countries as “waking up at different speeds – if you’re staring down the barrel of a Kalashnikov, it focuses the mind!”. This in reference to the Eastern European countries and those like Finland which share a border with Russia. Maria Domanska, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies, blames the West for “a lack of cognitive resistance” when it comes to Russia and its war on Ukraine. “We are paralyzed in front of Russia, like a mouse in front of a cobra”.

Domanska calls instead for “the federalisation, decolonization and decentralization of Russia”, claiming that within Russia the idea of local self-governance is quite popular. Domanska argues that it is ultimately in the West’s strategic interests to bring about Putin’s departure from power. This, she suggests, could open a window of opportunity for political change and the possibility of lasting peace in Europe. “We have created a false dilemma between security and prosperity. Very brutally speaking, it’s cheaper for NATO to defeat Russia in Ukraine than on our own territory”.

As Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security & Defence Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, puts it, “The time is limited – we are in the crucial phase of struggle; the results will directly determine how safe the future will be”. Looking to the future, Europe finds itself facing some tough choices, none are easy or cheap. “Trump is completely right to press Europe on more defence spending” said Rutte in Brussels recently. “But we should be spending more, not because of Trump but because of our own defence needs”.