progress

The power of progress and why we resist it.

As the world continues to struggle with the corona pandemic, progress may seem painfully slow. But as Steven Pinker recently pointed out in an online discussion organised by De Balie in Amsterdam, ‘Data shows that progress is a real phenomenon’. The Harvard-based psychologist reiterates the argument he makes in his best-selling book, ‘Enlightenment Now’: apply reason, science and humanism to the problems of the world and the result is progress. Yet, in spite of large amounts of data provided in support of world progress, many believe humankind is in a terrible state.

‘It’s not a case of seeing the world through rose coloured spectacles’ insists Pinker. ‘The case I’m making is really one of data’. The psychologist cites life expectancy, which has gone from an average of 31 years of age for most of history to 71 years of age globally and 80 years of age in developed countries. Two hundred years ago 90% of the world lived in extreme poverty, this figure has now dropped to 9%. Suicide worldwide has fallen by 40% in the last 30 years. War used to be the norm, we are now living in what some have called, the long peace. This doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for more progress, Pinker explains. Neither does it mean that progress is inevitable. But a lot of good news, ‘consists of nothing happening’. Bad news is usually far more sudden and dramatic. It is also therefore easier to report. So, unless you look at the data, your view of the world can be out of sync with reality.

Nevertheless, ‘a lot of forces in the universe are out to get us’ Pinker warns. The most prominent of these is disease. Infectious disease has been the norm throughout history. Wars kill far fewer people than pathogens. ‘The bugs are out to kill us and we’re out to defend ourselves’, says Pinker. So it is inevitable that Covid 19 is going to set back progress. Life expectancy will go down and poverty will increase. But, reason, science and humanism have been developed to help us fight disease, Pinker insists. And Covid is no different. Although daily news headlines might decry the spread of corona and the rising death toll worldwide,  Pinker points out that in comparison to previous pandemics, our progress in dealing with Covid 19 has been remarkably speedy.

‘We should invest in the equivalent of a fire department for pandemics’ – Steven Pinker

Pinker points out that we identified the pathogen within days. It took 3000 years to identify the pathogens associated with smallpox and polio. 15 years for HIV and 5 years for Ebola. Within weeks, the DNA structure of the corona virus was established and a vaccine is months away. However this does not mean that scientists and/or politicians have all the answers. Neither should we expect them to. Indeed, the psychologist suggests that we should treat pandemics the way we treat fires in cities. We should invest in the equivalent of a fire department for pandemics which will be at the ready for when a pandemic emerges. One of the biggest psychological obstacles to the fight against this pandemic, he argues, has been its politicization, from an early stage.

Politics and the media focus largely on the short term. ‘If you look at the news, things never get better. It’s only the data that shows the progress we have made.’ But Pinker agrees that in terms of the environment, progress is less evident. The climate crisis is much more sever than Covid. The issue is energy. Every aspect of life needs energy. Thus far we have depended largely on fossil fuels for our energy needs. ‘Burning fossil fuels has solved many problems but has also created many problems’.

‘We should be aiming for a clean-enough environment’ – Steven Pinker.

Pinker believes that the problem is solvable but ‘we’re going to have to do the math and realise that energy is good.’ Particularly in developing countries like India and China. ‘They’re going to want to get rich and we should not stop them.’ As with all things, Pinker, sees the climate crisis as a trade-off. If we want a perfectly clean environment we would all be living in poverty, he maintains. ‘We should be aiming for a clean-enough environment’. And indeed, in developed countries, the data shows that water and air have become significantly cleaner over time.  

Principal research scientist at MIT, and author of More From Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources—and What Happens Next, Andrew MacAfee argues that degrowth is not necessarily a prerequisite for saving our planet. Over the last fifty years, the world’s richest countries have learned how to reduce their footprint on Earth. MacAfee claims that the data shows a decoupling of growth and environmental harm in wealthier countries.

Rich countries have reduced their air pollution, for example, not by embracing degrowth or offshoring, but by enacting and enforcing smart regulation. Research from a 2018 study shows that in the US, changes in environmental regulation rather than in productivity and trade account for most of the emissions reductions. China too, has succeeded in significantly decreasing air pollution in densely populated areas (30% reduction between 2013 and 2017) thanks to government policy. MacAfee points to the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) by way of explanation. Named after economist Simon Kuznets, the curve posits a relationship between a country’s affluence and the condition of its environment.‘

Environmental Kuznet curve

So why the reluctance to embrace the progress that centuries of dedication to science, reason and humanism are able to offer us? Perhaps a natural human tendency toward focusing on the negative. An evolutionary quirk designed to keep us every ready to face danger in whatever shape or form it might come? Perhaps the never ending stream of negative news reporting that most of us accept almost unquestioningly. 

Perhaps, as MacAfee suggests, there are some for whom their jobs and  reputations depend on continued adherence to the degrowth argument in spite of evidence to the contrary. But surely the ultimate question is how many of us would be willing to accept recession if it weren’t necessary. MacAfee’s ecomodernist argument posits that most of the world’s people would much rather, ‘eagerly sign up to climb our new green path to prosperity’. Progress is not inevitable as Pinker repeatedly points out. But neither should we reject it on grounds of fear, negativity or ignorance of the data.

Iran

Iran: Is the worst yet to come?

Recent elections and the shock arrival of the coronavirus in Iran have brought the country once more into the spotlight. I spoke with Iranian scholars and experts at De Balie recently who were equally divided on what the future holds for this ancient and beleaguered Middle Eastern power.

In recent years, Iran has made headlines with international sanctions regarding its development of a nuclear capability. In November last year widespread protests fuelled by exponential hikes in fuel prices were followed by the assassination of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani by US forces in Iraq. A retaliatory attack by Iranian forces resulted in the downing of a passenger plane  in which over 100 Iranians were killed. More protests followed. It is estimated that  over 1500 Iranians have been killed by government clamp downs since November. With record low turnout at last week’s elections and a rising coronavirus death rate, Iran’s Islamic Republic is coming under increasing pressure.     

Described by many as ‘the least competitive election in years’ in Iran, over 7000 of  the 15 000 candidates who applied to run in the 2020 elections were disqualified by the Guardian Council. This is a 12-person board of experts in constitutional and Islamic law largely appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A survey of 140 000 people carried out earlier this month by Iranian state television indicated that 83% of participants would boycott the election. 

‘Iran is surrounded by evil disasters’ – Monsoureh Shojall

There is a deep sense of despair among Iranians. Long-time women’s rights activist, Monsoureh Shojall explains, ‘Iran is surrounded by evil disasters’. Certainly much has changed since the 2016 national elections. They promised hope of reform from within the Islamic government and a move toward a more open, prosperous economy. The 2015 Iranian nuclear deal had just been signed and the resulting lifting of sanctions paved the way for growth predictions of up to 6%. Voter turnout was reported to be 62%.

However the US has since pulled out of the nuclear deal (2018) and re-implemented a raft of sanctions against Iran. This, combined with high levels of corruption and mismanagement within the country, has resulted in soaring levels of unemployment and inflation. The IMF estimated a 9.5% contraction of Iran’s economy in 2019. Under these circumstances it is perhaps understandable that Shojall SAYS describes ‘negativity is a national trauma’ in Iran. However opinions on the country’s future are divided.

‘Iranian society is on a quest for democracy’ – Shervin Nekuee.

Some see the following months as the breaking point for Iran’s Islamic regime. It has struggled for over 40 years to maintain control. But for Iranian sociologist and writer, Shervin Nekuee, ‘Iranian society is on a quest for democracy’. He describes the current time as ‘a dark moment on an inspiring quest’. Iranian academic and research fellow, Damon Golriz, is even more hopeful of change. He argues that since December 2017 the country has ‘changed radically’. An era of dichotomy or bi-polar division has begun he explains, which involves 80% of Iranians under 40 demanding a complete change. ‘They want something totally new, a different life.’

Shervin Nekuee takes a long-term historical perspective in order to explain the current situation. His narrative begins in 1953, the year of the coup d’état in which the CIA allegedly took a hand via Operation Ajax. In the climate of the Cold War, the rise of the Communist Party in Iran was viewed with suspicion by the United States.  Fast forward to 1977 when Jimmy Carter describes Iran as ‘America’s island of stability’ in the Middle East. Only to find that two years later, the Islamic Revolution successfully dispelled any such notions. The American hostage crisis in the same year,  lasting for an incredible  444 days, compounds the growing tensions between the US and Iran. So too, does the Iran / Iraq war in which America supports Saddam Hussein. Trump’s recent withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and the assassination of a member of the Iranian government is further evidence of failing Iran US relations. 

‘Trump is more popular in Iran than in Europe’ – Damon Golriz

But there are others who interpret events differently. Damon Golriz argues that the removal of Soleimani has ‘opened the doors for negotiation between Iran and the US as well as Iran and Saudi Arabia’. Generally acknowledged as the second most powerful man in Iran after the Ayatollah Khamenei and labelled a terrorist by the US, Golriz argues that Soleimani stood in the way of any serious structural reforms in Iran. Research Fellow in International Peace, Justice and Security group in the Hague, Golriz told me he has twitter accounts in Persian and in English. He sees that in Iran, Trump is far more popular than in Europe. For the simple reason that ‘they understand politics while  the Europeans focus on his morality’. 

The future of course is difficult to foresee. As our Iranian host, Bahram Sadeghi, tells us with typical irony, ‘My father always said, “Bahram, the worst is yet to come”’. In the case of Iran, this may, sadly be true. But Damon Golriz is positive about the strong and growing desire for change among the younger generation in Iran. He is also more positive about the shift in power dynamics that have occurred in the Middle East recently. Even skeptics like University of Amsterdam Senior lecturer, Paul Aarts, agree that with a Republican government likely to remain in place in the US,  the Islamic regime may be forced to agree to a deal that even moderates will accept. This is simply because Trump has shown he is willing to put his money where his mouth is, for better and for worse.